Oct. 8, 2020
The real estate market continues to be HOT. This blog post will review the supply/demand issues in our area. As a backdrop, there is a shortage of homes in the United States. Nationally, from 1999 - 2016, there were only 4 months where we had less than 4 months of inventory. From 2017 - September 2020, 20 months out of 43 months had less than 4 months of inventory!
Real estate is a supply-demand market. Below is a brief look at the supply (inventory) and demand (sales) sides of the market.
- Overall, inventory dropped 28% 3Q20 vs. 3Q19
- The number of single family homes for sale in 3Q20 was mixed by price range:
under $500,000 (-50%)
$500,000 - $1 million (-29%)
$1 - $2 million (-23%)
$2 - $3 million (-9)
$3 - $4 million (-3%)
$4 - $5 million (+7%)
$5 - $10 million (+25%)
$10+ million (+58%)
- Overall, the number of sales rose 12% 3Q20 vs. 3Q19
under $500,000 (-22%)
$500,000 - $1 million (+9%)
$1 - $2 million (+46%)
$2 - $3 million (+67%)
$3 - $4 million (+59%)
$4 - $5 million (-8%)
$5 - $10 million (no change)
$10+ million (no sales)
With inventory falling 28% and sales rising 12%, you would expect prices to go up (less supply & more demand = higher prices). Average selling prices were at the highest level in more than 10 years & median selling prices for 3Q20 were the highest in 5 years. The ratio of the selling price to the original price stood at 98.6%, also the highest level in 10+ years. Sellers are asking more money for their homes and for now, they seem to be getting it.
For Westchester County as a whole, year-to-date sales are in line with 2019. Average and median selling prices are up about 9% compared to this time last year. For my coverage areas, here is some specific information to highlight:
- the number of sales fell in the following areas: Larchmont/Mamaroneck (-7%), Pleasantville (-10%), Valhalla (-10%), White Plains (10605/10606, -13%), Port Chester (-24%), Ardsley (-28%), Tuckahoe (-30%)
- the number of sales jumped in Harrison (+9%), Rye City (+15%), Edgemont (+18%), Chappaqua (+50%)
The big question is how long will this last? I don't know! I expected to see a large fall off in demand once the school year started but that has not been the case so far. There are still SO many buyers looking for homes and lots of bidding wars throughout the County.Here is an interesting article about how this trend could continue. As you can see from above, in most price ranges, there is still a large supply/demand imbalance in the market, i.e., not enough sellers for the large number of buyers. Some sellers are over-confident and I have seen more and more overpriced homes hitting the market. I don't believe this strategy works and over the next few weeks, I expect to see some price reductions as those homes sit on the market.
If you are considering a move or if you know somebody who is thinking about selling, please let me know! This is clearly a great market for sellers.
On the buying side, interest rates remain low and my previous blog post explored the many reasons to buy right now (low interest rates, secure a place to live, prices are likely not coming down anytime soon).
Stay healthy and thank you for your support in this crazy time.